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06/11/2007 - Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Eric Byrnes went 3-for-5 with a double as Arizona avoided a three-game sweep with a 5-1 victory over Boston at Chase Field.
Veteran left-hander Randy Johnson started on the mound for Arizona and gave up just one run on four hits while striking out nine and walking three in six frames. Johnson (4-2) now has four victories in his last five starts.
"To get alot of strikeouts early in the game, your pitch total adds up really quick," Johnson said. "As the game got a little deeper, the fourth, fifth inning, I got a few more ground balls. The first couple of innings you set the tone, and kind of get in the groove of things."
Chris Young, Stephen Drew and Carlos Quentin each knocked in a run for the Diamondbacks, who ended a three-game slide.
Daisuke Matsuzaka (7-5) started for Boston and went six innings, allowing two runs on four hits. The rookie right-hander also fanned nine and walked four in the loss.
"He (Matsuzaka) pitched his heart out, they made him work," said Boston manager Terry Francona. "I thought we made Randy (Johnson) work."
Mike Lowell knocked in the lone run for the Red Sox, who were looking to win their four straight contest.
After three scoreless innings, the Red Sox took a 1-0 lead in the fourth after Lowell doubled home Manny Ramirez, who walked to lead off the frame.
It was all Arizona the rest of the way as the D-Backs answered in the home half of the fourth and tied things at 1-1 after Drew's run-scoring single to center plated Orlando Hudson.
The score remained tied until the sixth, when Arizona went up 2-1 after Quentin doubled home Conor Jackson, who drew a walk to start the inning.
In the eighth, the Diamondbacks tacked on three more runs to take a four-run lead. Jackson singled to start things and Drew walked off Javier Lopez. Mike Timlin then entered the contest and Quentin laid down a bunt. On the play, Timlin's throw to first sailed over Kevin Youkilis' head allowing two runs to cross the plate. With two outs, Arizona made it 5-1 after Young's RBI single.
Game Notes
Drew has 26 RBI on the season while Quentin and Young each have 23...Arizona finished with seven hits while Boston ended with six...Matsuzaka has lost his last three starts...The Red Sox committed three errors...Both clubs left 10 runners on base.
<< Glaus leads Blue Jays over Dodgers
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Troy Glaus had three hits, including a pair
of solo homers, and scored three runs as the Toronto Blue Jays defeated the
Los Angeles Dodgers, 11-5.
John McDonald went 3-for-4 with two RBI and scored a pai
<< Gordon reigns supreme at Pocono
Long Pond, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Steve Letarte made the right calls and got
Jeff Gordon out front when the rains came to capture Sunday's rain-delayed
Pocono 500 at the Pocono Raceway. The No.24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
crossed
<< Mets' activate Green
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Mets activated outfielder Shawn
Green from the 15-day disabled list following Sunday's 15-7 setback to the
Detroit Tigers.
Green has been out since suffering a chip fracture on the base o
<< Dynamo win 3rd straight as Crew remain winless in six
Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A little over a week ago, Major League
Soccer's defending cup holder, Houston, looked like it was heading for a rough
stretch. The Dynamo were preparing for a three-games-in-eight-days stretch
after
Braves top Cubs; Lilly ejected in first inning >>
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ted Lilly was tossed in the first inning for
plunking Edgar Renteria and, though the Chicago bullpen pitched well for the
first seven innings, everything fell apart for Ryan Dempster in the eighth, as
the At
Jenkins lifts Brewers past Rangers in extra innings >>
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Geoff Jenkins belted a three-run homer in the
12th, and the Milwaukee Brewers topped the Texas Rangers, 9-6, in the finale
of a three-game set.
Prince Fielder ripped his NL-leading 23rd home run, and Cra
San Lorenzo bags Clausura title >>
Buenos Aires, Argentina (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - San Lorenzo captured its first
league title since 2001 with a 4-2 win against Arsenal at Pedro Bidegain on
Sunday.
Second-placed Boca Juniors earned a 1-0 victory over Belgrano earlier in
Phillies welcome White Sox in Thome's return to Philly >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jim Thome makes his return to Philadelphia this evening and
will lead the Chicago White Sox in the first of three interleague games
against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park.
Thome signed a big free agent contract with th
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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