Braves hold off Mets

Baseball Betting Lines

08/09/2007 - Flushing, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chipper Jones and Mark Teixeira hit back-to- back homers, and Willie Harris robbed Carlos Delgado of a game-tying homer in the ninth to help the Atlanta Braves hold on to a 7-6 win over the New York Mets, taking two of a three-game set.

Tim Hudson (13-5) held the Mets to three runs on nine hits in six innings, fanning three and walking one. Teixeira finished 2-for-5 and scored twice for the Braves, who have won four of five. Oscar Villarreal recorded the last two outs for his first-career save.

John Maine (12-7) was roughed up for seven hits and six runs in 5 1/3 innings, striking out four and walking three. Wright finished 3-for-5 with three RBI, and Jose Reyes also went 3-for-5, scoring three times for the Mets, who have dropped three of five.

A four-run ninth-inning lead almost crumbled away, thanks to the Braves bullpen. Tyler Yates opened the ninth on the mound for Atlanta, and promptly allowed a single to pinch-hitter Ruben Gotay and a double to Reyes. Luis Castillo's groundout scored one run, and Wright followed by golfing a low fastball deep into the bleachers in left-center, pulling the Mets to within one.

Villarreal then entered for Atlanta, but Delgado greeted him with a drive to deep left. Harris saved the day for the Braves, though, leaping to snare the ball inches above the fence. Moises Alou then grounded out, ending the game.

The Braves took the lead with back-to-back home runs by Chipper Jones and Teixeira in the fifth. Hudson led off with an infield single, and Harris walked. Jones stepped in after a Kelly Johnson fielder's choice and belted a 470-foot drive to right-center, a three-run shot that put Atlanta on top. Teixeira followed with a homer to right, his fourth since coming over from Texas, and the Braves led 5-2.

The Mets shaved the deficit to 5-3 on Delgado's RBI single in the home half, but the Braves added another run on a perfectly executed safety squeeze by Hudson in the sixth. With Yunel Escobar on third and one out, Hudson bunted to the right side of the infield. Maine pounced on the ball and flipped to Ramon Castro, but Escobar slid in safely.

Atlanta added another run in the seventh when, with runners at the corners and no outs, Jeff Francoeur grounded into a double play, giving the Braves a four- run lead.

Reyes' speed paid off in the first, as he legged out an infield single, moved to second on Castillo's sacrifice bunt, and came home on Wright's single to left. Alou's RBI single in the third gave the Mets a 2-0 edge.

The Braves got one run back in the fourth, when Brian McCann singled to center, moved to third on Francoeur's base hit to center, and scored on an Andruw Jones sacrifice fly to left, narrowly beating the throw from Alou.

Game Notes

Hudson is now 93-1 with a lead of three runs or more...The Mets lost center fielder Marlon Anderson in the fourth inning with a sprained left wrist he suffered while attempting to make a diving catch on a single off the bat of McCann. Lastings Milledge replaced Anderson in the lineup...This was the fourth time the Braves have hit back-to-back homers this year, the first time involving Chipper Jones.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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