Braves hold on to beat Nationals, extend win streak to five

Baseball Betting Lines

07/03/2009 - Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brooks Conrad's first home run of his career was a pinch-hit, three-run shot to help the Atlanta Braves take a 9-8 win over the Washington Nationals in the opener of a three-game set.

Chipper Jones, Yunel Escobar and Matt Diaz each had two RBI while Martin Prado crossed the plate three times for the Braves, who are on a season-high five- game winning streak.

Kenshin Kawakami started on the mound, but lasted just 4 1/3 innings as he was charged with five runs -- four earned -- on six hits with three walks and six strikeouts. Boone Logan (1-0) got the win for throwing 1 2/3 perfect innings.

Adam Dunn hit the 299th home run of his career while Nyjer Morgan went 0-for-4 with a walk, one stolen base and a run scored in his debut with the Nationals, who have dropped four straight and six of seven.

Ross Detwiler was tagged for five runs on 10 hits with two walks and a strikeout in just 3 1/3 innings. Jesus Colome (1-1) was saddled with the loss.

The game had gone back and forth through the first several innings, but the Braves took the lead back in the seventh. With Colome on to start the inning, Escobar led off with a walk. The next two batters recorded outs, but Casey Kotchman kept the inning alive with a walk and Conrad launched a pitch into the right field bullpen for an 8-5 lead.

Washington got a run back in the bottom of the frame with a sacrifice fly from Cristian Guzman, but Atlanta got it back in the eighth when Diaz worked a bases loaded walk to force home Prado.

Rafael Soriano came on in the ninth to close the game and issued walks to the first two batters. He retired the next two, but Guzman ripped a double down the right field line to make it a one-run game. However, Josh Bard grounded out to first to end the game and give Soriano his eighth save of the season.

After making a nice catch to end the top of the first, Morgan led off the home half of the frame with a walk and then stole second. The next two batters recorded outs, but Dunn kept the inning alive with a walk and Josh Willingham followed with a single to score Morgan for a 1-0 lead.

Atlanta, though, got the run back in the second as Brian McCann led off with a double and later scored on a single from Diaz.

Washington grabbed the lead back in the second on RBI singles from Ross Detwiler and Nick Johnson, but in the top of the third, Atlanta again tied the game thanks to an RBI double from Jones and a run-scoring single off the bat of Escobar.

Dunn led off the bottom of the third by drilling a 1-0 pitch into the upper deck of right field for a 4-3 lead.

However, the Braves again answered in the fourth to take the lead back. With Prado on second, Jones chipped a single to left bring him in. McCann then singled and, after Tyler Clippard took over duties on the mound, Escobar doubled to left to score Jones for a 5-4 lead.

The Nationals knotted the game again in the fifth. With one out, Willingham was hit by a pitch. Guzman then hit a grounder that Kawakami fielded, but he threw the ball away and the Nationals had runners at second and third. Josh Bard then grounded out to bring home Willingham to tie the game.

Game Notes

Atlanta has won five of seven against the Nationals this season...Morgan was acquired from the Pirates on Tuesday along with pitcher Sean Burnett for outfielder Lastings Milledge and pitcher Joel Hanrahan...Atlanta stranded 13 men on base while the Nationals left eight on base...Morgan now has 19 stolen bases on the season.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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