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11/07/2011 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There have been multiple reasons why horse racing has declined as a viable sport over the last five years. The three main causes that come to mind are drug scandals, race-day medication debates, and the breakdown of high profile horses such as Barbaro and Eight Belles. However, this year has brought forward a new wrinkle that not many folks would have ever expected - the lack of sufficient talent among North American thoroughbreds.
Highlighting this point is the fact that not a single horse that ran in this continent deserves to be crowned Horse of the Year. I can honestly say that in my 30-plus years of following the Sport of Kings, including 10 in which I was privileged enough to have a vote in the Eclipse Awards, 2011 would be the first year that I would actually abstain from selecting a Horse of the Year winner on the grounds that not a single thoroughbred is worthy of such an honor.
Despite that notion, one horse will be awarded Horse of the Year so I'll try to come up with five that could win it.
Two horses that in any other year would have zero chance of holding the "belt" could actually be candidates in 2011. They are the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies winners Hansen and My Miss Aurelia. It's extremely rare for two-year-olds to even be considered for Horse of the Year since they rarely race during the first six months of the year. In fact, only Favorite Trick (1997) has won the award since Secretariat back in 1972. But this year is unlike any other we've seen in recent memory.
Hansen may not relish the 1 1/4-mile distance of the Kentucky Derby next spring, but he beat a very deep field in the $2 million Juvenile to remain undefeated. He was also the only Breeders' Cup winner to win gate-to-wire while racing on the worst part of the track - the inside.
The gray son of Tapit, who came into the Juvenile with a pair of blowout victories at Turfway Park, held off the even-money favorite Union Rags by a diminishing head to increase his record to a perfect three-for-three. Union Rags probably was the best horse in the race having run wide throughout, but take nothing away from the winner, who will undoubtedly have his share of rabid fans heading into the three-year-old prep races.
The time for the 1 1/16-mile event was a sluggish 1:44 2/5 - almost two seconds slower than Uncle Mo's victory in this race last year. Furthermore, the times of the other dirt races on Saturday were very similar to those from 2010 so the 2011 Juvenile will not go down as one of the top two-year-old races in recent years.
My Miss Aurelia was another impressive winner as she took the Juvenile Fillies division by three-lengths over Grace Hall. It was another six back to Weemissfrankie in third. The daughter of Smart Strike was in complete control throughout the 1 1/16-mile event and she remained unbeaten with four wins in four tries.
On the down side, the last time a two-year-old filly won Horse of the Year was...never, so don't look for it to happen in 2011.
NON-BREEDERS' CUP PARTICIPANTS
In a year that not many horses proved victorious in multiple Grade I races, there are two that triumphed in three of them. However, they did not get a chance to strut their stuff at Churchill Downs this past weekend.
Cape Blanco strung together wins in the Man O' War, Arlington Million, and Turf Classic - all Grade I events between 10 and 12-furlongs. Nevertheless, he sustained a career-ending knee injury while winning the Turf Classic five weeks ago at Belmont Park. In addition, the two horses that finished second in those three races - Gio Ponti (twice) and Dean's Kitten - ran fourth in the BC Mile and last in the BC Turf, respectively.
Cape Blanco could easily be voted Turf Horse of the Year, but he won't come close to winning Horse of the Year.
The other 2011 three-time Grade I winner that did not participate in the Breeders' Cup is Acclamation. The five-year-old won five of seven races this year, including victories on both turf and synthetics.
Acclamation hit the winner's circle from May through October, but his crowning achievement came over the summer in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar. The son of Unusual Heat ran the 10-furlongs in 2:00 3/5, the fastest clocking since Candy Ride (2003) stopped the timer in 1:59. It was his first ever win on any surface other than grass.
The knocks on Acclamation are that he did not win outside of California, and in his lone start on dirt, he finished dead last in the Charles Town Classic, albeit on a sloppy track.
Both Acclamation and Cape Blanco will battle for Male Turf honors, but it's doubtful either will take home Horse of the Year.
PROBABLE WINNER
Considering the average payout on Breeders' Cup Saturday was $38.37, it's easy to see why only a few BC winners will wind up being named champions of their respective divisions.
Drosselmeyer, the BC Classic winner, won just one other race in 2011- a listed stakes at Belmont Park - so he's not going to win Horse of the Year.
Game On Dude, the second-place finisher in the Classic, has an outside shot since he bagged wins in both the Santa Anita Handicap and the Goodwood Stakes. However, he was beaten by Acclamation in the Pacific Classic. Ruler On Ice, the third-place finisher in the Classic, has won just two races this season even though one of them was the Belmont Stakes.
Could a horse that ran fourth in North America's richest race win Horse of the Year? The answer is yes.
Havre de Grace, the four-year-old daughter of Saint Liam, ran seven times in 2011 from March through November losing only once against her own sex - a nose defeat against arch-rival Blind Luck. She also beat the boys in the Grade I Woodward at Saratoga.
Havre de Grace won three Grade I races, but unlike Acclamation and Cape Blanco, she did it on three different racetracks. In a year that is most forgettable, look for Havre de Grace to win Horse of the Year.
PREDICTED ECLIPSE AWARD WINNERS
As mentioned earlier, Hansen and My Miss Aurelia are shoe-ins for two-year- olds of the year. The top three-year-old colt should be Caleb's Posse after he won the BC Dirt Mile. Royal Delta has the three-year-old filly award locked up and the same can be said for Havre de Grace as top older female.
Male sprinter should go to Amazombie while female sprinter could be a three- way battle between Hilda's Passion, Sassy Image, and Musical Romance. The choice here is Hilda's Passion.
Male turf will come down to East vs. West as Cape Blanco battles Acclamation. Expect the former to win since Acclamation's Pacific Classic victory has no bearing on this award.
The female turf award is wide open after Stacelita ran 10th in the F&M Turf. Look for Sarafina to snag the win after a fourth-place finish against the boys in the BC Turf.
Another division - older male - is wide open after Drosselmeyer surprised the field in the Classic. The choice here is Acclamation over Game On Dude, with honorable mention to Rapid Redux for 17 wins in 17 starts.
Let's hope 2012 can outdo the rubbish that was 2011.
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BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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