Brewers hope for some success in Cincinnati

Baseball Betting Lines

09/08/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Milwaukee Brewers haven't fared well against Cincinnati this season. The club will try and turn things around versus the Reds -- and hold onto their share of the division lead -- tonight in the middle portion of a three-game series at Great American Ball Park.

Ken Griffey Jr. hit career home run No. 593 and finished with three RBI in the Reds' 11-4 rout of Milwaukee on Friday. The victory improved Cincinnati to 7-3 against Milwaukee this season, with five of those wins coming at home.

Josh Hamilton went 4-for-5 with three runs scored, a homer and a pair of RBI for the Reds, who have won two straight after dropping five in a row. Bronson Arroyo (8-14) tossed 7 2/3 quality innings, yielding three runs on five hits with eight strikeouts.

Dave Bush (11-10), on the other hand, was battered for eight runs over just one-plus innings for Milwaukee, which remains in a tie for first in the National League Central after the co-leading Cubs fell to the Pirates Friday.

The Cardinals are just one game back of both the Brewers and Cubs as well.

Prince Fielder hit his NL-leading 42nd homer in defeat, a solo shot in the fifth inning.

Jeff Suppan starts for the Brewers and is coming off his first win in over two months. Suppan bested Kansas City back on June 22 and then proceeded to go 0-4 over his next 12 starts. However, he got back in the win column on Sunday against the Pirates, allowing four runs (two earned) on nine hits over five innings of a 7-4 victory that improved him to 9-11 with a 4.75 earned run average.

The right-hander has lost both of his starts this year against Cincinnati, including an outing on August 17, and is 2-2 with a 6.45 ERA in nine career starts against them.

Aaron Harang had a four-decision winning streak halted in a big way last time out and starts tonight for the Reds. Harang was tagged for six runs and 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings of a loss to the Mets, falling to 14-4 on the year with a 3.68 ERA.

The right-hander, who has struck out 180 batters on the year, got a no- decision in Milwaukee on August 19 after allowing six runs in 6 2/3 innings and is 4-3 in 13 career starts against the Brewers with a 4.75 ERA.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.