Mets hope to right ship in Cincinnati

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05/03/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pitching has been a problem lately for the New York Mets, who will try to get a decent start from Oliver Perez tonight in the opener of a three-game series against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park.

The Mets were riding an eight-game winning streak until Mike Pelfrey was rocked for six runs in four innings of a 10-0 loss in Philadelphia on Saturday. Johan Santana tried to right the ship last night, but a huge fourth inning sealed his fate. The Phillies exploded for nine runs in the frame and Santana suffered the loss, yielding 10 runs in 3 2/3 innings of an 11-5 loss.

"I felt like I threw some good pitches. They were able to put the ball in play and hit it out of the park," Santana said. "It's one of those days where whatever you do, it didn't work out the way we wanted and the way I wanted. It's just a bad day."

David Wright got Santana off to a good start with a three-run homer in the first inning and Rod Barajas added a two-run shot for the Mets, who hope to get a strong start from Perez this evening in The Queen City. Perez is 0-2 with a 4.35 earned run average in four starts this season and recorded a no- decision in his previous outing on Tuesday in a 10-5 win over the Dodgers.

Perez allowed three runs on three hits and four walks in 3 2/3 innings. The streaky left-hander will face the Reds for the 20th time in his career -- all starts -- and is 9-5 with a 4.54 ERA.

Cincinnati hopes to get back in the win column after losing the last two contests of a three-game road series at St. Louis. In Sunday's 6-0 loss in the finale of the Busch Stadium set, Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter held the Reds in check with seven shutout innings of three-hit ball and eight strikeouts.

Reds starter Aaron Harang fell to 1-4 on the season despite six decent innings of work, as he gave up three runs and seven hits.

"Harang threw the ball good today," Reds manager Dusty Baker said. "They got some two-out hits when they needed them."

Drew Stubbs, Joey Votto and Scott Rolen each had a hit for Cincinnati, which has lost two in a row since a five-game winning streak and will also host the Chicago Cubs for three games on the residency.

Baker will send rookie Mike Leake to the mound this evening and he has won back-to-back starts. He earned his first major league victory in an 8-5 decision over the Dodgers on April 22 despite giving up five runs through seven innings. Leake then beat Houston last Wednesday with seven innings of one-run ball to support a 6-4 triumph.

The right-hander has a tough task in his first-career outing versus the Mets.

New York won four of six matchups with Cincinnati a year ago.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.