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01/27/2012 - Ottawa, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alex Ovechkin has owned the Breakaway Challenge since the event's inception a few years ago, but with the Washington Capitals star pulling out of the league's All-Star Game, some new faces will get a chance at the title.
There are still plenty of other former winners set to participate in the Skills Competition on Saturday at Ottawa's Scotiabank Place, including All- Star team captain Zdeno Chara, snipers Daniel Sedin and Evgeni Malkin and speedster Marian Gaborik.
This will be the second skills event under the league's current All-Star format of selecting team captains and having the rosters chosen by a fantasy draft, which took place this past Thursday. Boston's Chara is the head of one team, opposed by hometown favorite Daniel Alfredsson of the Ottawa Senators.
Last year, a team captained by Carolina's Eric Staal defeated a group of players led by Detroit's Nicklas Lidstrom in the Skills Competition on the Hurricanes' home ice. Neither Staal nor Lidstrom are back for this year's exhibition.
The Breakaway Challenge is one of the six events on tap for Saturday's battle and has been won by Ovechkin all three times since it debuted at the 2008 event. The phase involves one player mixing skill and creativity on a breakaway attempt on a goaltender. The event differs from a penalty shot in that a skater can start from anywhere in the offensive zone.
The three shooters will be made up of two All-Stars and one rookie, while each team will also select one netminder. The winner of the challenge will be selected by fan voting via text messaging and earn his team one point.
Ovechkin would have likely been the favorite to repeat in the event, but he pulled out of the All-Star festivities after getting suspended for three games for leaving his feet to deliver a high, hard check versus Pittsburgh on Jan. 22. Ovechkin was still eligible to participate in the events, but opted out.
One event that could see a repeat champion is the Hardest Shot competition. Chara has won the event in each of the past four editions, unleashing a record 105.9 miles per hour blast in last year's get together. That broke his own record of 105.4 mph set the previous season. Nashville's Shea Weber, a member of Team Alfredsson, gave Chara a run for his money last year when he uncorked a 104.8 mph blast in the preliminary round.
Four players -- one rookie and three All-Stars -- will take their turns for each team in this event, with a point being awarded to the winner of each of the four preliminary rounds and another to the victor in the finale.
The Scotiabank Place's ice will be put to the test in the Fastest Skater event, which was won last year by Michael Grabner of the New York Islanders with a time of 14.238 seconds. Grabner is not in the competition this year, though 2003 winner Gaborik, who had a time of 13.713 seconds, is a member of Chara's team.
Four All-Stars and one rookie will take turns doing one lap around the ice. There will be five preliminary races under a new format of one skater from each team racing side-by-side towards the same end zone before turning outward, skating to the opposite end, turning back and skating past center ice to the finish line. The players from each team posting the fastest time will meet in a sixth and final race, with the winner of each of the individual six rounds getting a point for his squad.
The Accuracy Shooting bout is a simple one in which four players from each team -- three All-Stars and one rookie -- will take turns standing 25 feet in front of the net while taking passes and aiming at four foam targets in the corners of the goal. The player with the fastest time from each team will then go head-to-head in a fifth round for the title.
Each round awards one point to the winner and a few former champions could get the call. Sedin, last year's victor, is on Team Alfredsson, while Chara has three former champs on his roster in Malkin (2008), Marian Hossa (2007 co- winner) and Jarome Iginla (2002 co-winner). Sedin won last year's event by hitting all four targets in 8.9 seconds.
Back for its second year is the Skills Challenge Relay, won last year by Team Lidstrom with a time of 2:09. The event puts 14 All-Stars and two rookies from each team together.
The competition meshes together a host of skills into five successive events. A one-timer event starts it off with three shooters and one passer needing to score three goals over an eight-inch barrier. Once completed, a different player must complete a pass into six nets placed around the rink to keep things going.
Skill with the skate and stick follow. First, a player must make his way through a series of cones will keeping control of the puck before another skater stick handles the disc through a series of obstacles.
The heat then comes to a close with an accuracy portion in which a shooter takes aim at four targets. Two groups from each team go through the entire relay, with the fastest squad in each heat getting a point and the fastest combined time getting a bonus point.
Things then come to a head for Team Alfredsson and Chara in the Elimination Shootout. This competition sees 15 skaters consisting of one rookie, 11 All- Stars and three goaltenders, battle in a game of survival. Shooters take their aim at the goaltenders and need to score to move on to the next round. Netminders rotate after every third shooter and the event goes until one player scores and the others do not in a single round.
This event is sort of like the bonus round of a game show; each goal scored by a player counts for one point for his team.
Team Chara member Dion Phaneuf won the inaugural event in 2008, followed by Shane Doan in 2009. Corey Perry, also a member of Chara's team this year, was the last-man standing a season ago.
<< Manning and Irsay say no hard feelings
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton
Manning and team owner Jim Irsay issued a joint statement Friday to dispel any
notion that the two are at odds.
Manning and Irsay both made comments through
<< Rangers hope to close the gap on Celtic
Glasgow, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rangers welcome Hibernian to Ibrox in
Scottish Premier League play on Saturday with an opportunity to place some
additional pressure on first-place Celtic.
The Hoops lead the league with 59 point
<< Former Bengals QB Cook dies
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Greg
Cook, whose brief career was cut short by injury, died on Thursday night from
an undisclosed illness. He was 65.
"I've lost a good friend," Bengals president
<< Astros ink Duke to minor league deal
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Houston Astros on Friday agreed to terms
with left-handed pitcher Zach Duke on a minor league contract that includes an
invitation to spring training.
Duke spent the 2011 campaign with the Arizona Dia
AC Milan signs Lopez from Catania >>
Milan, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - AC Milan announced Friday that it has signed
striker Maxi Lopez from Catania, possibly signaling the end of the Rossoneri's
pursuit of Carlos Tevez.
Milan appeared to be in the mix to land the want-away Manc
Giants sign infielder Theriot >>
San Francisco, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Francisco Giants signed infielder
Ryan Theriot to a one-year, non-guaranteed major league contract.
The deal, announced Friday, is pending a physical.
Theriot, 32, played in 132 games for the W
Report: Browns hire Childress as OC >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cleveland Browns have hired Brad Childress as offensive
coordinator, according to a report.
Childress will become the first offensive coordinator under Browns head coach
Pat Shurmer, NFL.com reported Friday.
The f
Rays sign Keppinger to major league deal >>
St. Petersburg, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Rays signed veteran
infielder Jeff Keppinger to a one-year deal on Friday.
The 31-year-old hit .277 with six home runs and 35 runs batted in over
99 games as he split time w
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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El Duque expected to throw Tuesday
PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. -- New York Mets pitcher Orlando Hernandez, sidelined at spring training because of arthritis in his neck, is expected to resume throwing on Tuesday.
Hernandez received a cortisone shot Thursday after leaving camp and returning to New York to have his neck examined. The 41-year-old right-hander is penciled in as the team's No. 2 starter behind Tom Glavine.
El Duque's health is a major issue for the Mets, who won the NL East in 2007 and came within one victory of the World Series. Their aging and unsettled rotation is a big question mark this year.
MySportsbook.com has the Mets as -110 favorites to repeat as NL East champions odds.
Hernandez went 11-11 with a 4.66 ERA last season, including 9-7 with a 4.09 ERA in 20 starts after the Mets acquired him from Arizona in late May. But he missed the playoffs because of a torn calf muscle.
New York already is without Pedro Martinez, out until at least midseason following rotator cuff surgery. Among those competing for starting jobs are prospects Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber and Jason Vargas, plus veterans Chan Ho Park, Jorge Sosa and Aaron Sele.
Notes: Mets manager Willie Randolph is excited about two new utility players he could have on his bench: Damion Easley and David Newhan. ''Their value is really all over the place,'' Randolph said. Easley can play anywhere in the infield and could be used as an emergency outfielder, though Randolph said he would prefer to keep the veteran in the infield. Newhan, meanwhile, can play second base, third or any outfield position for the Mets. ''I love versatility,'' Randolph said. ''I love guys that can give me options when I need them to step in.''
Additional baseball lines and World Series odds can be found at: www.MySportsbook.com
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