Rags to Riches for Todd Pletcher

Horseracing Betting Lines

06/11/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It took 102 years for the third filly to win the Belmont Stakes. It also took a female to upstage the plight of trainer Todd Pletcher. Amid countless Eclipse Awards and stakes victories by the score, the former assistant to D. Wayne Lukas finally got the monkey off his back with a victory in a Triple Crown event.

Rags to Riches was superb on Saturday, holding off even-money favorite Curlin to win the "Test of Champions" at Belmont Park. After stumbling at the start (eerily similar to Curlins break in the Preakness), the filly was placed wide around the clubhouse turn by jockey J R Velazquez so she wouldnt have a ton of dirt kicked in her face by horses right in front of her.

Pletchers plan was exercised to perfection throughout the entire race, as Rags to Riches was wide throughout, especially around the far turn. Curlin, on the other hand, stayed closer to the rail, a la Street Sense, but that, among a few other possibilities, was his downfall.

Was the Preakness winner just plain tired down the stretch from four tough races in a 56-day span? Did Rags to Riches benefit from the five-pound weight allowance? The answer to the first question is, no, as Curlin ran his final four furlongs of 1 -mile race in 48 seconds flat. He also would have won the Belmont by a wide margin if the filly were not in the race.

The second question gives a little more credence to why Rags to Riches won the race. For the most part, weight is the most overrated angle in horse racing, except when the distances increase to 1 -mile and up. The six colts carried 126 pounds as opposed to 121 for the filly and it was apparent that the difference in weight gave Rags to Riches the slight edge in the 1 -mile race, even though she probably would have won if the two had run at equal weights. The bottom line is that she was the much better horse on this particular day. She had by far the tougher of the two trips and still got the job done.

GIVE IT UP FOR TODD PLETCHER

ESPN commentator Randy Morse continually stated throughout the telecast that Rags to Riches, statistically, had the best chance to win of all the previous 28 Triple Crown runners from the Todd Pletcher barn. She went off at 4-1, slightly lower than the 9-2 odds Bluegrass Cat was in last years Belmont.

For all his stakes victories and record money earnings, Pletcher had not won a Kentucky Derby, Preakness or Belmont. He also has won just two Breeders Cup races in 41 attempts. Many media pundits were questioning his move by entering Rags to Riches in the Belmont as another example of his trying to hard to win a marquee event. They were flat out wrong.

The daughter of A.P. Indy (1992 Belmont winner) is also a half-sister to Jazil (2006 Belmont winner) so the bloodlines were extremely evident. She had dominated her sex with four straight victories, including two wins by a combined 10 lengths in the Kentucky and Santa Anita Oaks. Her Beyer number of 104 on Oaks day at Churchill Downs was higher than every race by her six rivals except for Curlins Preakness win and Hard Spuns second in the Derby.

Rags to Riches was also the fresher horse, having not raced in 36 days, while Curlin and Hard Spun had both run in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. She is now the fifth horse in the last six years to win the Belmont Stakes after skipping the Preakness.

Its true the other fillies Rags to Riches had beaten would have had zero chance against the likes of Curlin since she is, by far and away, the runaway leader in her division. But that didnt prevent Pletcher from making the decision to send her to New York. He is a master horseman who learned the tricks of the trade from one of the best trainers ever in D. Wayne Lukas. Pletcher was his assistant for many years before going on his own in 1995.

The Dallas native gets criticized at times for his failures, but all that can now be put away to pasture with his win on Saturday. The same can now be said for a fillys chance to win the Belmont Stakes.

HOW SHE DID IT

The early pace was slow - 24 3/5 for the first quarter of a mile. Robby Albarado, as expected, had Curlin much closer to the pace, just two lengths off C P West and Slews Tizzy down the backstretch. Rags to Riches sat one- half length behind Curlin as the field of seven hit the half in a dawdling 50 seconds flat.

Hard Spun, sent off as the third choice at 5-1, sat third under a tight hold by new rider Garrett Gomez. The positions were virtually unchanged for the entire run down the backstretch, but once they raced around the far turn, Rags to Riches began her assault on the outside, getting the early jump on Curlin. Nevertheless, once Slews Tizzy began to fade, a hole opened for Curlin, and the Preakness winner charged alongside C P West at the top of the lane.

Hard Spun was in the three-path with the filly to his outside. Excitement was ecstatic all around the Belmont grandstand as the two top choices (Curlin and Rags to Riches) opened up daylight from Hard Spun and C P West. It was a "down the stretch" duel to remember for the final 3/16ths of a mile as Rags to Riches looked like she was going to run right by Curlin, but the Steve Asmussen-trained colt fought back to close the gap.

The filly opened up a slight lead inside the final 1/8-mile, but once again Curlin came on again. It was like the 12th round of a heavyweight fight with neither horse giving way. The filly, however, proved best as Velazquez, with a smart tactical move, pinned Albarado and Curlin to the rail inside the final 50 yards of the race, making sure Rags to Riches would prevail. And that she did, finally giving Pletcher his moment in the sun.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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